Willy Woo Defends Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle, Rejecting Claims That the Pattern Is Dead

On-chain analyst Willy Woo has pushed back strongly against growing claims that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has come to an end, arguing that current price data still aligns with the traditional cyclical structure — at least through 2026.

Woo believes recent skepticism stems from misinterpretations of short-term data and social media narratives, not from structural evidence that Bitcoin’s cycle has fundamentally changed.

The “Heartbeat” Analogy: Why Cycles Still Matter

To explain his position, Woo used a medical analogy. Just because a heartbeat slows during sleep doesn’t mean the heart has stopped beating. Similarly, slight changes in the timing or intensity of Bitcoin’s price movements do not signal the disappearance of its four-year rhythm.

According to Woo, external factors such as ETFs, macroeconomic conditions, or liquidity injections may alter the pace of the cycle, but the underlying supply-and-demand pulse — driven largely by halvings — remains intact.

Until Bitcoin’s price action moves deeper into 2026 and displays clearly non-cyclical behavior, Woo argues the four-year model is still the most reliable framework.

Industry Leaders Argue the Cycle Is Obsolete

Woo’s view contrasts with opinions from several high-profile crypto figures. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and researcher Ryan Rasmussen have suggested that Bitcoin has entered a new era, where the traditional halving-driven boom-and-bust cycles are significantly weakened.

Their argument centers on the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional capital, which they believe are smoothing volatility and preventing the extreme 70–80% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles.

From this perspective, Bitcoin is transitioning into a longer, more stable bull market, rendering the classic four-year cycle less relevant.

A More Mature Bitcoin Market?

Other analysts interviewed by Bitcoin.com News share this outlook, emphasizing that ETF flows and macroeconomic forces now play a greater role in price discovery than miner reward halvings.

They argue Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a mature financial asset — with slower appreciation, fewer crashes, and stronger correlation to global liquidity trends — rather than a purely halving-driven speculative market.

In this view, Bitcoin’s future may resemble traditional markets: steadier growth instead of explosive cycles.

Woo Responds to Criticism and Reaffirms His Thesis

Addressing personal criticism online, Woo rejected claims that a hedge fund he managed collapsed in 2020.

“That was not my fund,” Woo clarified. “My first fund, Crest, launched in 2022 and is still operating today with consistent returns. We currently run three institutional funds, including SyzCrest in partnership with Syz Banking Group.”

What Still Drives the Four-Year Cycle?

When asked what continues to support Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, Woo pointed to two core forces:

The internal supply shock caused by Bitcoin halvings

The global four-year liquidity cycle, which influences risk-on and risk-off market behavior

Woo noted that Bitcoin has historically led broader macro markets into risk-off phases on three prior occasions. Whether the current environment represents the fourth instance remains under debate — but it would still fall within Bitcoin’s entire historical lifespan.

Supporters of Woo’s thesis also highlight ongoing government stimulus and liquidity injections, arguing that once this capital filters through risk assets, it could reignite the cyclical expansion pattern observed in previous Bitcoin cycles.

Bottom Line

While institutional adoption and ETFs have undeniably changed Bitcoin’s market structure, Willy Woo maintains that the four-year cycle is not dead — only evolving. Until price action decisively proves otherwise, he believes dismissing the cycle entirely is premature.