This On-Chain Metric Signals Bitcoin’s Late November Crash Likely Marked the Bottom

A key on-chain indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s sharp decline in late November may have marked a market bottom, with historical data pointing to significant upside potential ahead.

The metric in focus is the short-term holder (STH) profit-to-loss ratio, which compares the amount of BTC held at a profit versus a loss by investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days.

Short-Term Holder Ratio Hit Extreme Lows

As Bitcoin plunged toward the $80,000 level in late November, the STH profit-to-loss ratio dropped to an extreme 0.013 on Nov. 24, according to Glassnode data.

Historically, readings at or near this level have coincided with either local market bottoms or the definitive end of bear markets. Similar extremes were observed at major turning points in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.

Losses Peaked as Profits Collapsed

At the November low:

The 7-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to roughly 30,000 BTC

Meanwhile, short-term holder supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000

This imbalance reflected widespread capitulation among newer market participants — a condition that has historically preceded trend reversals.

Ratio Recovery Signals Improving Market Health

Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, climbing above $94,000, representing a gain of more than 7%.

During this recovery:

Short-term holder supply in loss declined to around 1.9 million BTC

Short-term holder supply in profit jumped to approximately 850,000 BTC

The profit-to-loss ratio recovered to roughly 0.45

This rebound indicates that a growing share of recent buyers are once again in profit.

Why This Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Move

Historically, when the STH profit-to-loss ratio approaches 1, it often continues higher, signaling the start of a sustained bullish phase. Market tops, by contrast, have tended to occur only when the ratio expands dramatically toward extreme levels near 100.

With the ratio still well below equilibrium, the data suggests there is substantial room for further upside before the market reaches overheated conditions.

Conclusion: On-Chain Data Points to Upside Ahead

While no single metric guarantees future price action, the short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio has repeatedly proven effective at identifying market inflection points. Its sharp recovery from historically extreme lows strengthens the case that Bitcoin’s late November sell-off marked a bottom, rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be entering the early stages of its next sustained upward move.