Epoch Ventures Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $150,000 in 2026, Declares End of Four-Year Cycle

Epoch Ventures, a venture firm focused on Bitcoin infrastructure, released its second annual Bitcoin ecosystem report on January 21, 2026, projecting continued maturation of the asset despite a relatively subdued 2025.

The 186-page report examines Bitcoin’s price behavior, adoption trends, regulatory outlook, technological risks, and market structure. Epoch forecasts that bitcoin will reach at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, driven by institutional inflows, reduced downside volatility, and gradual decoupling from equities.

The firm also argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer relevant, signaling a structural shift in how Bitcoin trades and grows.

Bitcoin at a Turning Point

Bitcoin closed 2025 at $87,500, posting a 6% annual decline, but an 84% gain over the four-year period—placing that cycle’s performance in the bottom 3% historically.

Epoch states unequivocally that the cycle narrative is outdated:

“We believe cycle theory is a relic of the past, and the cycles themselves probably never existed. Bitcoin is boring and growing gradually now. Gradual growth is precisely what will drive a ‘gradually, then suddenly’ moment.”

According to the report, expectations of predictable boom-and-bust cycles may have become self-fulfilling, contributing to 2025’s decline from $126,000 to $81,000. Relative strength indicators (RSI) remained below overbought levels since late 2024, suggesting Bitcoin already endured a de facto bear market and entered a new regime in 2026.

Epoch’s base case envisions lower downside volatility and steady upside expansion, rather than sharp cyclical spikes.

Gold Rotation as a Major Catalyst

Bitcoin has underperformed gold since December 2024, falling 49% versus gold while the metal surged to new highs. Epoch identifies this divergence as a potential catalyst rather than a weakness.

The report notes that:

A 0.5% reallocation from gold into bitcoin would exceed cumulative U.S. ETF inflows

A 5.5% gold rotation would equal Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization

As gold rises, Bitcoin becomes increasingly attractive on a relative basis. Epoch’s timing analysis—measuring days from local gold tops—suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a relative bottom versus gold, setting the stage for rotation-driven inflows.

Volatility Compression and Market Maturity

Epoch highlights Bitcoin’s declining volatility, noting that in 2025 it traded with volatility levels similar to mega-cap equities such as Tesla, while average volatility among Nasdaq 100 leaders exceeded Bitcoin’s.

While long-term equity correlations persist, the report argues that maturing credit markets, ETF adoption, and emerging safe-haven narratives could gradually shift Bitcoin toward gold-like behavior, limiting severe drawdowns over time.

Bullish Catalysts for 2026

Epoch outlines several structural tailwinds supporting its $150,000 price target:

Consistent ETF inflows

Nation-state adoption

Mega-cap corporate allocations

Wealth managers adding Bitcoin to client portfolios

Intergenerational inheritance allocation

Media, sentiment, and narrative normalization

Sentiment, Media, and FUD Analysis

Epoch analyzed 356,423 data points across 653 sources, revealing a fragmented but stabilizing sentiment landscape.

Key findings:

“Bitcoin is dead” narratives have largely concluded

FUD remains stable at 12–18%, though topics rotate

Crime and legal FUD increased 277%

Environmental FUD declined 41%

A 125-point perception gap exists between Bitcoin conference attendees (+90 net positive) and tech media (–35 net negative). UK media outlets showed 56–64% negative coverage, roughly 2–3× higher than international averages.

Lightning Network discussions dominate podcasts (33% of coverage) but receive just 0.28% of mainstream media attention, a 119× disparity. Layer-two solutions appear complementary rather than competitive, with Lightning accounting for 58% of mentions and Ark growing 154% year-over-year.

Mining sentiment diverges sharply depending on audience:

75.6% positive coverage in mainstream media

8.4% positive sentiment within Bitcoin communities

This 67-point swing highlights the importance of credibility and framing for mining companies.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies Expand Rapidly

Corporate Bitcoin adoption accelerated in 2025 more than any prior year.

According to Epoch:

Public company Bitcoin holdings rose 82% YoY to 1.08 million BTC

Public companies holding Bitcoin increased from 69 to over 191

Corporations now control 6.4% of total supply

Public companies: 5.1%

Private companies: 1.3%

Bitcoin treasury companies (BtcTCs) acquired roughly 486,000 BTC in 2025, equivalent to 2.3% of total supply, creating pronounced boom-and-bust valuation cycles tied to Bitcoin’s price.

Epoch notes these firms offer:

Broker-friendly exposure

Leverage through debt

Potential dividends

…but carry dilution and volatility risks compared to direct Bitcoin ownership.

Looking ahead, Epoch expects Japan’s Metaplanet to command the highest mNAV multiple among treasury companies above $1 billion in market cap, and predicts at least one underperforming treasury firm will be forced into liquidation by activists or rivals.

Regulation Outlook: Clarity Without CLARITY

Epoch does not expect the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to pass in 2026. However, it believes the bill’s substance—asset taxonomy and jurisdictional clarity—may advance through SEC guidance or rulemaking instead.

The firm also forecasts Republican losses in midterm elections, potentially leading to increased consumer-protection-focused regulation. Epoch does not expect pardons in 2026 for the founders of Samurai Wallet or Tornado Cash, though it sees future legal proceedings as potentially favorable.

Epoch is critical of both the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act, arguing they prioritize industry lobbying over user rights—particularly self-custody and permissionless transactions.

On stablecoins, the report warns the GENIUS Act effectively recreates a two-tier banking system, transforming peer-to-peer payments into a heavily intermediated structure layered atop traditional finance.

Quantum Computing Risk Deemed Overstated

The report addresses late-2025 fears that quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, arguing the concern is vastly overhyped.

Epoch notes:

Quantum computers have not factored numbers larger than 15

Logical qubit growth does not match claims of exponential acceleration

Error rates rise sharply with scale

The report is skeptical of “Neven’s Law,” calling it speculative rather than observational. Premature adoption of quantum-resistant signatures would introduce inefficiencies and untested risks. Epoch concludes that quantum threats do not warrant immediate protocol changes.

Mining Outlook for 2026

Epoch forecasts that no top-ten public Bitcoin miner will derive more than 30% of revenue from AI computing in 2026 due to infrastructure delays.

While mainstream media coverage of mining remains largely positive, Bitcoin-native skepticism persists. Epoch emphasizes that community credibility will remain critical for miners seeking long-term support from Bitcoin holders.

A Maturing Monetary System

Epoch’s report presents Bitcoin as an asset transitioning from speculative cycles to institutional, structural growth. While volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain, the firm argues Bitcoin’s maturation—combined with macro tailwinds and capital rotation—positions it for a decisive breakout in 2026.

The full report is available for free on Epoch Ventures’ website.