Bitcoin Volatility in December 2025 Masks Emerging Bullish Signals, Says VanEck

Bitcoin closed the fourth quarter of 2025 under pressure, with December delivering sharp price swings and heightened volatility. Despite a nearly 9% monthly decline and the highest volatility levels since April, VanEck believes early signs of stabilization are forming beneath the surface.

According to the firm’s mid-December ChainCheck report, improving liquidity conditions and a reduction in speculative leverage are creating a more constructive environment for long-term Bitcoin investors.

Liquidity Improves as Speculative Excess Cools

VanEck’s digital asset research team describes a market in transition. While on-chain activity remains subdued, liquidity metrics are strengthening, suggesting that recent volatility may be part of a broader market reset rather than a structural breakdown.

Speculative leverage, which surged earlier in the year, appears to be unwinding — a development VanEck views as healthy. Historically, periods of declining leverage have reduced downside risk and laid the groundwork for more sustainable price action.

Corporate Accumulation Accelerates While Retail Pulls Back

A notable trend highlighted in the report is the growing divergence between corporate buyers and retail investors.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) aggressively accumulated Bitcoin during the December pullback, adding approximately 42,000 BTC — their largest monthly increase since July. This brings total DAT holdings to more than one million bitcoin, reinforcing the shift toward balance-sheet-driven accumulation.

In contrast, Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors reduced exposure, signaling waning short-term speculation. VanEck interprets this as a rotation away from retail momentum trades toward longer-term, institutionally driven strategies.

Some DATs are also exploring alternative financing models, such as issuing preferred shares instead of common equity, to fund ongoing Bitcoin purchases — a move that reflects increased financial sophistication and longer investment horizons.

Long-Term Holders Remain Convicted

On-chain data further reveals a split between different holder cohorts. Bitcoin held for one to five years has shown increased movement, indicating profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing among mid-term investors.

Meanwhile, coins held for more than five years remain largely dormant. VanEck sees this as a strong signal that long-term holders continue to believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, even amid heightened short-term uncertainty.

Falling Hashrate May Be a Contrarian Bullish Signal

Bitcoin miners faced mounting pressure in December. Network hashrate declined by roughly 4%, marking the steepest drop since April 2024. VanEck attributes much of this decline to regulatory challenges and output reductions from large mining operations in regions such as Xinjiang.

At the same time, breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have fallen, highlighting tighter margins across the sector.

Historically, however, VanEck notes that periods of declining hashrate often precede positive price performance over the following 90 to 180 days, making miner capitulation a potential contrarian bullish indicator.

Structural Health Viewed Through the GEO Framework

VanEck frames its analysis using its GEO model — Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-chain Activity — which aims to assess Bitcoin’s long-term structural health beyond daily price movements.

While on-chain metrics such as new address growth and transaction fees remain soft, rising liquidity and sustained accumulation by corporate entities help offset these weaknesses, pointing to a broader market recalibration rather than systemic decline.

Macro Forces and Market Evolution Add Complexity

Macro conditions continue to shape Bitcoin’s outlook. A weakening U.S. dollar has supported precious metals, yet Bitcoin and other digital assets have struggled to benefit from the same tailwinds so far.

At the same time, changes in market infrastructure could support Bitcoin’s long-term liquidity and adoption. VanEck points to the emergence of so-called “everything exchanges” — platforms that combine stocks, crypto, derivatives, and prediction markets under a single umbrella, often enhanced by AI-driven trading tools.

Coinbase’s recent expansion into stock trading, futures, and prediction markets exemplifies this trend, which could gradually increase Bitcoin’s utility and integration within broader financial markets.

Volatility Persists, but Cycles May Be Maturing

Although Bitcoin has doubled over the past two years and nearly tripled over three, the absence of extreme boom-and-bust cycles suggests that market behavior may be evolving.

VanEck expects future price cycles to be more measured, with smaller peaks and shallower drawdowns compared to previous eras dominated by retail speculation.

Outlook: Consolidation Before the Next Move?

VanEck characterizes the current environment as a market correction rather than a breakdown. Short- and medium-term speculation is retreating, long-term holders remain steady, institutional accumulation is increasing, and miners are under stress — a combination that often marks transitional phases.

As 2025 comes to an end, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating within a more mature market structure. According to VanEck, this recalibration phase could set the stage for stronger upside momentum in the first quarter of next year.