Bitcoin’s Slide Is Slowing — But Analysts Say Bear Market Conditions Remain

Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests that selling pressure may be fading. However, analysts caution that stabilization does not yet signal a confirmed trend reversal.

After weeks of macro-driven volatility, the market appears to be shifting from aggressive downside momentum toward a more measured consolidation phase.

Signs That Downside Momentum Is Easing

In a recent market update, analysts at 10x Research noted that Bitcoin failed to extend losses despite negative macro headlines — often an early signal that sellers may be losing control.

Several technical developments stand out:

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $68,500.

Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating compressed volatility and potential range expansion ahead.

The $62,500 level has held through three separate tests, reinforcing it as meaningful support.

Momentum indicators such as RSI and stochastic oscillators are showing bullish divergences.

At one point, Bitcoin briefly moved back above $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating toward the high-$68,000 range, according to TradingView data.

The broader takeaway: downside acceleration has stalled.

A Tactical Shift — Not a Structural Reversal

Despite improving short-term signals, 10x Research emphasized that this appears to be a tactical shift rather than a confirmed structural trend change.

Three developments support the idea that immediate downside risk is moderating:

Volatility is compressing.

ETF flows have strengthened.

The Coinbase spot discount — often a proxy for U.S. selling pressure — has disappeared.

“These are not characteristics of a market accelerating into a fresh leg lower,” the firm noted.

However, within their broader allocation framework, Bitcoin remains classified in a bear market regime. Any bullish positioning, they argue, should be considered tactical rather than long-term structural.

Macro Pressure Is Having Diminishing Impact

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, suggested that while macro and crypto-specific headwinds previously drove sharp declines, recent reactions have been more contained.

Despite ongoing concerns around tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest rate expectations, price responses have become less extreme.

That moderation could signal either:

Seller exhaustion, or

Steady accumulation by buyers averaging into weakness

In either case, the tone appears to be shifting from panic to consolidation.

Derivatives Markets Triggered a Short Squeeze

According to Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, part of Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the $63,000 area was driven by deeply negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets.

Negative funding means short sellers are paying long traders to maintain positions — often a sign of overcrowded bearish positioning.

When price rebounded sharply, it triggered liquidations of leveraged short positions, creating a classic short squeeze that temporarily eased selling pressure.

However, Adziima warned that:

Structural spot inflows remain limited.

Clear macro catalysts are absent.

The broader downtrend from the all-time high remains intact.

Liquidity conditions are still fragile, with resistance overhead.

In short, the bounce appears tactical rather than foundational.

What Comes Next?

Bitcoin’s behavior is shifting from aggressive selloffs to range-bound consolidation.

Support near $62,500 has held repeatedly.

Volatility compression suggests a larger move could be building.

Momentum indicators are stabilizing.

Yet without sustained capital inflows or macro tailwinds, analysts remain cautious about declaring the end of the bear phase.

For now, the market narrative has moved from “accelerating downside” to “stalling decline.”

That’s progress.

But it’s not a confirmed reversal — at least not yet.