Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops in First Network Adjustment of 2026

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty recorded a modest decline in its first adjustment of 2026, marking a pause after a year of repeated all-time highs that pushed miners to their limits.

The Bitcoin network difficulty — a measure of how hard it is to mine a new block — slipped to 146.4 trillion, according to network data. This adjustment reflects slightly faster-than-target block production during the previous period.

Next Difficulty Adjustment Expected to Rise Again

Despite the recent dip, the next difficulty recalibration is already projected to move higher. Data from CoinWarz estimates that the next adjustment, expected around Jan. 22, 2026, could increase mining difficulty to approximately 148.2 trillion.

At the time of writing, average block times stand at 9.88 minutes, marginally below Bitcoin’s 10-minute target. When blocks are found too quickly, the network responds by increasing difficulty to maintain stability.

Mining Difficulty Still Below November Peak

While 2025 saw multiple record-breaking difficulty increases, the current level remains well below the all-time high of 155.9 trillion, reached in November 2025. The final adjustment of last year nudged difficulty higher, but the broader trend has softened entering 2026.

Higher difficulty translates into greater competition among miners, making block rewards harder to secure — a challenge compounded by economic and regulatory pressures that defined much of 2025.

2025 Was the Toughest Year Ever for Miner Margins

Bitcoin miners endured what analysts describe as the most severe margin compression in history. The April 2024 halving cut block rewards in half, while rising energy costs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a crypto market downturn further strained operations.

The sell-off that began in November pushed BTC prices sharply lower, intensifying the pressure on mining profitability.

Hash Price Fell Below Breakeven Levels

A key metric, miner hash price — which measures expected daily revenue per unit of computing power — dropped below critical thresholds late last year.

Historically, miners face difficult decisions when hash price falls below $40 per petahash per second per day. In November 2025, that figure slid under $35, marking a multi-year low and forcing some operators to power down less efficient rigs.

Additional Headwinds: Tariffs and Market Volatility

U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump also weighed on mining companies, raising concerns about ASIC supply chain disruptions and increased hardware costs.

Meanwhile, a sharp market correction triggered by an October flash crash sent Bitcoin prices down more than 30% in November, briefly pushing BTC to just above $80,000.

Although Bitcoin has since rebounded, prices remain well below the October all-time high above $125,000, keeping miner profitability under pressure as 2026 begins.

Outlook for Bitcoin Mining in 2026

The slight drop in mining difficulty may offer temporary relief, but ongoing volatility, energy costs, and regulatory uncertainty suggest miners will continue to face a challenging environment.

With difficulty expected to trend higher again, efficiency, access to low-cost energy, and scale will remain critical for miners hoping to survive and thrive in the evolving Bitcoin mining landscape.