Bitcoin Back Above $90,000: Is the Bear Market Really Over?

Bitcoin climbed back above the $90,000 level, reaching a three-week high and sparking renewed discussion about whether the recent bearish phase has ended. However, despite the price rebound, derivatives data and spot ETF flows suggest that traders remain cautious, signaling limited confidence in a sustained upside move for now.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Limits Bitcoin’s Recovery

BTC briefly traded above $90,000 on Saturday, raising hopes of a push toward $95,000 for the first time in seven weeks. Still, broader market conditions continue to weigh on sentiment.

While the S&P 500 sits just 1.3% below its all-time high, investors are increasingly uneasy about the economic outlook. Concerns intensified after Tesla reported weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries, with Q4 sales falling 15% year-over-year. Tesla shares dropped 2.5% and remain more than 12% below their peak.

At the same time, Nasdaq futures struggled to reclaim the 26,000 level. The tech sector remains caught between optimism around artificial intelligence and fears of a slowing U.S. labor market.

A rare bright spot came from China, where Baidu shares surged 15% following news of a planned IPO for its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin. Even so, many traders believe tech valuations—despite driving a 20% Nasdaq gain in 2025—may now be stretched.

Bitcoin Hits Multi-Week Highs, But Leverage Demand Remains Weak

Despite Bitcoin’s rebound to its highest levels since mid-December, demand for leveraged bullish positions has not increased. BTC has traded within a narrow 6% range over the past 20 days, frustrating traders waiting for a decisive breakout.

The Bitcoin futures basis rate remains below neutral levels, reflecting hesitation among bulls. The current annualized premium of roughly 4% suggests ongoing concern that U.S. trade tariffs and economic headwinds could pressure risk assets.

On the positive side, Bitcoin’s recent retest of the $85,000 support zone failed to trigger panic selling, indicating that bearish momentum is limited for now.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Investor Caution

Another factor weighing on sentiment is continued selling in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since mid-December, these products have recorded more than $900 million in net outflows, reducing demand from institutional investors.

In contrast, gold ETFs have seen seven consecutive weeks of inflows, suggesting that some investors are shifting toward traditional safe havens amid concerns about U.S. fiscal stability and slowing growth.

Options Market Shows Skepticism Near $90,000

Bitcoin’s options market also reflects caution. One-month BTC put options continue to trade at a premium, meaning professional traders are demanding higher compensation to protect against downside risk.

Although the put-call skew remains within a neutral range, it has not flipped bullish. This indicates lingering skepticism around Bitcoin’s ability to sustain prices above $90,000, even though there are no signs of extreme fear or capitulation.

Inflation and Rates Remain Key Risks

Inflation expectations remain a major overhang as the U.S. government considers new tax incentives to stimulate growth. According to CME FedWatch data, bond markets assign only a 16% probability that interest rates will fall to 3.25% or lower by April.

Given this backdrop, Bitcoin derivatives traders are not yet positioning for another major rally. Confidence is likely to rebuild gradually after BTC’s prolonged consolidation around the $89,000 level.

Bottom Line: Recovery, Not Confirmation

Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 is encouraging, but market data suggests the rally lacks strong conviction. Until ETF flows stabilize and leverage demand improves, the recent rebound looks more like consolidation than a confirmed bull trend.